The state of the world · August 2026 · updated August 5, 2026 · See previous versions

The state of the world

Almost every question we track moved in the same direction this month. Things are getting more intense. AI is moving faster than most institutions can handle. Countries are pulling apart. And a quieter pressure is building underneath it all. Nothing has broken yet. But more signals point toward change than toward calm.

Machines that can act on their own

Some AI tools can now write code, run experiments, and manage tasks without human help at each step. This month, more of those tools moved into real workplaces. The pace of improvement has not slowed down. By 2030, this shift is more likely than not (64%).

Countries pulling apart, economically and financially

The world's big economies may split into rival groups. Each group would have its own rules, its own money systems, and its own trade networks. This month, the signal jumped more than any other. Large economies kept making moves to rely less on each other. By 2030, this fracture could go either way (51%).

Who ends up keeping the profits when AI takes over work

AI is getting better at doing things people used to be paid to do. This question asks who ends up keeping the money from that. This month, the signal moved up. The gains from AI kept flowing to a small number of companies and places, not spreading out broadly. By 2028, this outcome is more likely than not (59%).

Whether the physical world can keep up

Chips, cables, power plants, and data centers — AI runs on these physical things. This question asks whether shortages in building them will become a serious problem. The signal barely moved this month. But it already sits high. By 2032, this is likely (73%).

Editing life at the biological level

Scientists have tools that can rewrite human DNA. This question asks whether those tools will move from labs into everyday use. The signal nudged up this month. Research kept advancing, and early tests in patients continued. Still, by 2030, this remains unlikely (28%).

How the shape of society is changing

Fewer children are being born. Populations are getting older. More people are moving between countries. Ideas about family and community are shifting. This question asks whether all of that will add up to real change in how societies work. New data this month reinforced trends that have been building for years. By 2035, this could go either way (53%).

Whether people feel their lives have a point

Many people — especially in wealthier countries — feel their work and daily lives lack meaning. This question tracks whether that feeling will keep growing. The signal moved up again this month. It has done so consistently for many months in a row. By 2030, this is likely (79%).

Whether the planet's natural systems stay stable

Oceans, forests, freshwater, and climate patterns — human life depends on these. This question asks whether they will stay stable enough to avoid serious harm to large numbers of people. The signal moved up slightly this month. That means the risk of instability is growing. By 2035, this could go either way (43%).

Brújula reads signals from around the world — news, research, and public data — and turns them into clear questions about where things are heading. It updates month by month. The Daily report shows what moved today and why. The Browsable model lets you explore the full picture behind each of these questions.