It came true, but the threshold we set was below what the world has been doing for years.
A second thesis of the 47 has come true. It asked for a migration wave of 20 million people or more from acute climate causes or conflict, in any twelve-month window, before 2030.
On 12 May 2026 the IDMC — the centre that keeps the count of internal displacement worldwide — published its annual report. The 2025 figure: 62.2 million internal displacements, of which 29.9 million from disasters and 32.3 million from conflict and violence. At year end, 82.2 million people were living in internal displacement.
Three things to say, and the first one is uncomfortable.
Brújula did not see the report. There is no IDMC connector: the clause said «according to UNHCR + IDMC consolidated» and of those two sources we only ingest the first. The report was published five days after our ingestion began and spent five months without the system noticing. The clause has been flagged as editorial verification since 16 October for exactly this reason, and this resolution was made by a person reading the report, not by the system.
The threshold was set too low. Twenty million in twelve months is not a high bar: it is below what has been observed every year since the thesis was written. A thesis that resolves on any recent year was not measuring a change in the world, it was measuring that the world is still what it is. This resolution says more about our criterion than about what happened.
The figure and the date are the IDMC's, not ours. The link to the report is on the thesis card.
With the number we do the same as with the first resolution: the last forecast stays where it was, labelled as such, and we do not raise it to 100% now that we know the outcome. The only interesting thing about a resolved thesis is how high we had it before we knew.
Its master thesis folds in the result instead of carrying on averaging a doubt that no longer exists.
