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The Model

Eight master theses. Twenty-six granular sub-theses. Anchored to public, verifiable sources. Probabilities move as evidence arrives.

      8 master · 26 sub-theses · updated today
      
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The eight big questions

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How probabilities move

01

Each sub-thesis is anchored to public sources: prediction markets, papers, regulatory registers, macro indicators and biophysical observations.

02

Every relevant event runs through an extraction layer that assigns magnitude and direction. Movements over the editorial threshold pause for human validation.

03

Master theses aggregate their granulars via weighted average: high confidence weighs 3, medium 2, low 1.

What this is not

It is not a forecast. It is not a recommendation. It does not replace your judgment. The model is an instrument: it shows the structural state of variables that compound across decision horizons.

Published predictions carry dates and remain public. Annual Brier-score audit against forecasting baselines.

Read the editorial archive →