Public, verifiable sources. Every probability move traces back to one of them.
Manifold
Prediction market
Thousands of people bet with virtual credits on future events. Their prices are a useful reference against which Brújula contrasts its own reading.
Metaculus
Community forecasts
Community of volunteer forecasters with reasoned estimates and public track record on political, scientific and technological questions.
Polymarket
Real-money market
Prediction markets settled in stablecoins. With real capital at stake, prices reflect beliefs with more weight in geopolitical and financial events.
Open database that processes world news in near real time and codes them into a structured schema. The most complete source of events at scale.
arXiv · OpenAlex
Scientific papers
Open repositories of preprints in physics, AI, quantum computing and biology. Catching the signal before it reaches the press gives us a temporal edge.
FRED · ECB · BLS
Macroeconomics
Public data from central banks and statistical offices: inflation, employment, rates, debt, trade. The gold standard of free macro data.
Federal Register · AISI
Regulation
Official US and UK registers. Decisions from FDA, BIS, FCC or AISI move markets and technologies before the press covers them.
ClinicalTrials.gov · bioRxiv
Clinical trials
Official NIH registry + preprints in biology. Each entry is verifiable signal of which biotech pipeline is moving.
Edelman · Pew · Reuters Institute
Institutional trust
Global surveys on public trust in government, media, business and NGOs. The best open historical series of a slow, structural variable.
NOAA · GISTEMP · OWID
Climate data
Atmospheric data, CO₂ and biodiversity. Physical data doesn't have opinions: they are the most reliable signals of the planetary climate system.
UCDP · UNHCR · ACLED
Conflict and displacement
Uppsala CDP + UNHCR refugees + armed events. Record conflict and its human consequences with public methodology.
AllSides · AI Incident DB
Media bias · AI incidents
Measures fragmentation of shared reality and catalogs real incidents with AI systems in production.